2003 ROBERT F. ENGLE for methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility (ARCH) CLIVE W. J. GRANGER , for methods of analyzing economic time series with common trends (cointegration) 2002 DANIEL KAHNEMAN for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty VERNON L. SMITH, for having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms 2001 GEORGE A. ACKERLOF, A. MICHAEL SPENCE, and JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, for their analyses of markets with asymmetric information. 2000 JAMES J. HECKMAN for his development of theory and methods for analyzing selective samples DANIEL L. MCFADDEN for his development of theory and methods for analyzing discrete choice. 1999 ROBERT A. MUNDELL for his analysis of monetary and fiscal policy under different exchange rate regimes and his analysis of optimum currency areas. 1998 AMARTYA SEN for his contributions to welfare economics. 1997 ROBERT C. MERTON and MYRON S. SCHOLES for a new method to determine the value of derivatives. 1996 JAMES A. MIRRLEES and WILLIAM VICKREY for their fundamental contributions to the economic theory of incentives under asymmetric information. 1995 ROBERT LUCAS for having developed and applied the hypothesis of rational expectations, and thereby having transformed macroeconomic analysis and deepened our understanding of economic policy. 1994 JOHN C. HARSANYI , JOHN F. NASH and REINHARD SELTEN for their pioneering analysis of equilibria in the theory of non-cooperative games. 1993 ROBERT W. FOGEL and DOUGLASS C. NORTH for having renewed research in economic history by applying economic theory and quantitative methods in order to explain economic and institutional change. 1992 GARY S. BECKER for having extended the domain of microeconomic analysis to a wide range of human behaviour and interaction, including nonmarket behaviour. 1991 RONALD H. COASE for his discovery and clarification of the significance of transaction costs and property rights for the institutional structure and functioning of the economy. 1990 HARRY M. MARKOWITZ , MERTON M. MILLER and WILLIAM F. SHARPE for their pioneering work in the theory of financial economics. 1989 TRYGVE HAAVELMO for his clarification of the probability theory foundations of econometrics and his analyses of simultaneous economic structures. 1988 MAURICE ALLAIS for his pioneering contributions to the theory of markets and efficient utilization of resources. 1987 ROBERT M. SOLOW for his contributions to the theory of economic growth. 1986 JAMES M. BUCHANAN, JR. for his development of the contractual and constitutional bases for the theory of economic and political decision-making. 1985 FRANCO MODIGLIANI for his pioneering analyses of saving and of financial markets. 1984 SIR RICHARD STONE for having made fundamental contributions to the development of systems of national accounts and hence greatly improved the basis for empirical economic analysis. 1983 GERARD DEBREU for having incorporated new analytical methods into economic theory and for his rigorous reformulation of the theory of general equilibrium. 1982 GEORGE J. STIGLER for his seminal studies of industrial structures, functioning of markets and causes and effects of public regulation. 1981 JAMES TOBIN for his analysis of financial markets and their relations to expenditure decisions, employment, production and prices. 1980 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN for the creation of econometric models and the application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies. 1979 THEODORE W. SCHULTZ and SIR ARTHUR LEWIS for their pioneering research into economic development research with particular consideration of the problems of developing countries. 1978 HERBERT A. SIMON for his pioneering research into the decision-making process within economic organizations. 1977 BERTIL OHLIN and JAMES E MEADE for their pathbreaking contribution to the theory of international trade and international capital movements. 1976 MILTON FRIEDMAN for his achievements in the fields of consumption analysis, monetary history and theory and for his demonstration of the complexity of stabilization policy. 1975 LEONID VITALIYEVICH KANTOROVICH and TJALLING C. KOOPMANS for their contributions to the theory of optimum allocation of resources. 1974 GUNNAR MYRDAL and FRIEDRICH AUGUST VON HAYEK for their pioneering work in the theory of money and economic fluctuations and for their penetrating analysis of the interdependence of economic, social and institutional phenomena. 1973 WASSILY LEONTIEF for the development of the input-output method and for its application to important economic problems. 1972 SIR JOHN R. HICKS and KENNETH J. ARROW for their pioneering contributions to general economic equilibrium theory and welfare theory. 1971 SIMON KUZNETS for his empirically founded interpretation of economic growth which has led to new and deepened insight into the economic and social structure and process of development. 1970 PAUL A SAMUELSON for the scientific work through which he has developed static and dynamic economic theory and actively contributed to raising the level of analysis in economic science. 1969 RAGNAR FRISCH and JAN TINBERGEN for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes.