Astronomy Asteroid "2004 MN4" impact raised to 1 in 38

Discussion in 'Astronomy' started by Bleys, Apr 9, 2005.

  1. Bleys

    Bleys Phoenix Takes Flight Staff Member

    Asteroid \"2004 MN4\" impact raised to 1 in 38

    I'm trying to track down more on this and will update tonight. Seems like it should have been bigger news.

    The asteroid was identified last June, but due to bad weather she was lost. Calculations at the time put her risk of impacting the Earth at 1 in 170. But she has been picked up again and scientists have reevaluated their earlier calculations and put the risk at 1 in 38 probably around Friday the 13th, 2029.

    Story can be found - here


    B.
     
  2. DreamLandMafia

    DreamLandMafia Premium Member

    Friday the 13th?? Thats...amazing. Doesnt have a month tho ;)
     
  3. Bleys

    Bleys Phoenix Takes Flight Staff Member

    :ch:

    April 13, 2029 *mumbles something about smart alecky kids with nuttin' better to do than to harass their elders*


    ;)Bleys
     
  4. DreamLandMafia

    DreamLandMafia Premium Member

    I was just saying, that its weird that they just said Friday the 13th, and not the actual date.
     
  5. tablet

    tablet Premium Member

    2029 = 2+0+2+9 = 13

    This is not a conspiracy site so let's not go there. I do not believe that asteroid will hit us... it's mind technique. Diverting attention. Back in 1997 or 1998 we recieve many asteroid warning, one that will come in the year 2000 or 2005. So far none.
     
  6. JcMinJapan

    JcMinJapan Premium Member

    A collision had been ruled out as on december last year. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news148.html
    Here is the risk analysis for it as well........ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

    I just like the fact that it is Friday the 13th... Makes ya wonder... BWAHAHAHA
    Dooms Day Parties galore! :cheers:
     
  7. Bleys

    Bleys Phoenix Takes Flight Staff Member

    Everybody's a freakin' comedian this week. My posting of the article was not meant to show the dreaded conspiracy angle (Note my avatar is sans tinfoil hat) - but I appreciate the thought tabbie.:p

    My concern, in general, is that we do not have adequate tracking in place and the window of opportunity to act is too small. But I was really hoping someone could better explain this:

    Does "resonance with the Earth" mean - just affected by it or captured albeit not in orbital terms? help the astrophysically challenged among us understand this.

    B.:lol:
     
  8. Mizar

    Mizar Premium Member

    Planetary resonance is something that yes to fully understand you need to know astrophysics.

    Our solarsystem is arranged in planetary resonance. It is how plantary gravity reacts on the orbit of other planeray bodies (digs out old sky and telescope issue...)

    Yeah I can't explain the article but here is the best I can give you...

    http://skyandtelescope.com/magazinearchive/article_1373_1.asp

    And if your feeling really nerdy here is a paper on it....

    http://personales.oac.uncor.edu/~beauge/articulos/FerrazMello.Beauge.Michtchenko.CeMDA2003.pdf
     
  9. JcMinJapan

    JcMinJapan Premium Member

    Well, any object affects the gravitational pull of another object. Look at the moon and earth. The moon affects the earths rotation and tides.... The Earth afftects the moons rotation as well.

    Now, this asteroid could actually change direction slightly if it passes close enough to another object, so the direction is based on the current direction calculation. So, it will be a close encounter with the earth. It is estimated that the Earths magnetic field will have an effect on the asteriod and change its direction slightly and possibly sling shot it back into space. But, until it happens, then it is a guess as to the exact effect.

    So, they are estimating now that it may be influenced enough to end its orbit around the earth, now, much more eliptical that the moon of course... once every 5 years or so. Then it will be up to calculations in the future on this new and quicker orbit, whether it will be moving closer or farther away from the Earth. Then they can estimate a collision year if there will actually be one. Hey, if something caused it to slow down and it could not escape the gravitational pull of the Earth, then it could become another moon... But, that is very much doubtful due to the speed and size.