Asteroid \"2004 MN4\" impact raised to 1 in 38 I'm trying to track down more on this and will update tonight. Seems like it should have been bigger news. The asteroid was identified last June, but due to bad weather she was lost. Calculations at the time put her risk of impacting the Earth at 1 in 170. But she has been picked up again and scientists have reevaluated their earlier calculations and put the risk at 1 in 38 probably around Friday the 13th, 2029. Story can be found - here B.